The Lindy Effect in IT

The Lindy Effect: For some things (technology, business, ideas, theories, concepts, trends), their life expectancy increases proportionally to their current education.

Thus, the effect is to assume that it will have a previous life span in the future.

Why does it work this way? When you research or develop something new where the end point is unknown/invisible, you never know where or how far away you are now.

And you are always halfway to the possibly achievable end goal.

For startups and IT, it sounds a little confusing, so an easy way to rewrite the proverb to fit our theme:

However far your product goes, it can double that result.

For example: can your product become the maximum? If you have 1000 users, you can most likely get +1000 users in the same way by doubling your numbers.

In other words, you've already proven that you can do it a second time (maybe even faster).

It's the same with marketing - if you've attracted 1,000 customers through one channel, the same channel can generate 1,000 more for you.

The Lindy Rule also works in the opposite direction - it is unlikely that within one channel there will be 10 times more opportunities to attract 10,000 customers to you.

The final version of this rule for "growth of a startup" is as follows:

You can probably reach your endpoint. But x10 growth will definitely require innovation.

For example, Facebook has 2.8 billion users and has exhausted its marketing channels. That is why they buy other startups, embed hidden indicator trackers in their web buttons, increasing their "audience".

GoDaddy has 1.4 million users in 2020 (that's exactly double the number in 2019) and at this rate it will take 18 years for them to grow 10 times.